{"id":22,"date":"2026-06-17T03:50:16","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T03:50:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/40.233.122.247\/?p=22"},"modified":"2026-06-17T03:50:16","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T03:50:16","slug":"2026-06-16%ed%99%94-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%a6%9d%ec%8b%9c-%ec%8b%9c%ed%99%a9-%ec%b4%9d%ec%a0%95%eb%a6%ac-%eb%82%98%ec%8a%a4%eb%8b%a5%c2%b7sp500-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%ed%95%9c%eb%88%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/?p=22","title":{"rendered":"2026.06.16(\ud654) \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc \uc2dc\ud669 \ucd1d\uc815\ub9ac \u2014 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\u00b7S&#038;P500 \uc804\ub9dd \ud55c\ub208\uc5d0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>                    <!-- System - START --><\/p>\n<p>        <!-- System - END --><\/p>\n<div class=\"tt_article_useless_p_margin contents_style\">\n<h2>\u26a1 TL;DR<\/h2>\n<ol style=\"list-style-type: decimal;\">\n<li><b>\ubb34\ub300\uac00 \ubc14\ub010\ub2e4 &mdash; \ud734\uc804\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc73c\ub85c.<\/b> \uc5b4\uc81c(6\/15)\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b0 \u7f8e-\uc774\ub780 \ud734\uc804&middot;\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \uc7ac\uac1c\ud1b5 \ud638\uc7ac\ub294 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uc18c\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. \uc624\ub298\ubd80\ud130 \uc774\ud2c0\uac04 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub2e8 \ud558\ub098\uc758 \uc9c0\ubc30 \ubcc0\uc218\ub294 <b>\ub0b4\uc77c(6\/17) FOMC<\/b> &mdash; <i>\ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc(Kevin Warsh) \uc2e0\uc784 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uccab \ud68c\uc758<\/i>\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li><b>\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \ud655\uc815.<\/b> \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac 3.50~3.75% \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 CME FedWatch \uae30\uc900 <b>97% \uc774\uc0c1<\/b>. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad00\uc2ec\uc740 &#8220;\ub3d9\uacb0\uc774\ub0d0&#8221;\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c <i>\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c&middot;SEP&middot;\uc6cc\uc2dc\uc758 \uccab \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac \ud1a4<\/i>\uc5d0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li><b>\ubbf8\uad6d \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \uc228 \uace0\ub974\uae30.<\/b> S&amp;P500 E-mini \uc120\ubb3c +0.46%, \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \uc120\ubb3c \uac15\ubcf4\ud569. \uc5b4\uc81c \uae09\ub4f1(\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 +3.07%) \ub4a4 <i>FOMC\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uad00\ub9dd<\/i>\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ud615\uc801 \uad6c\uac04.<\/li>\n<li><b>\uc720\uac00 \uc548\uc815&middot;\uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638 \uc720\uc9c0.<\/b> WTI\ub294 \uc5b4\uc81c 80\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub300(-5.48%)\uae4c\uc9c0 \ube60\uc9c4 \ub4a4 \uc548\uc815. \ud734\uc804 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \ub418\uac10\uae40\uc740 \uc77c\ub2e8\ub77d. \ub2e8 6\/19 \uc815\uc2dd \uc11c\uba85 \uc804\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uc794\uc874.<\/li>\n<li><b>\uc624\ub298 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc7a5\uc740 &#8220;\uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \ub300\uae30&#8221; \uc7a5\uc138\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131.<\/b> \ud070 \ubc29\ud5a5\ubcf4\ub2e4 <i>FOMC \uc804 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \uc815\ub9ac<\/i>\uac00 \uc6b0\uc120. \uc9c4\uc9dc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \ub0b4\uc77c \uc624\ud6c4(\uc6cc\uc2dc \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac) \uc774\ud6c4 \ub098\uc62c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\uc815\ubcf4 \ub4f1\uae09: <b>\uc0ac\uc2e4<\/b>(\uac00\uaca9&middot;\ubc1c\ud45c) \/ <b>\uad00\uce21<\/b>(\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751&middot;\uc218\uae09) \/ <b>\ud574\uc11d<\/b>(\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624)\uc744 \uad6c\ubd84 \ud45c\uae30.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\uc548\ub155\ud558\uc138\uc694, \uce94\uc11c\ubc29\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc7a5 \uc804\uc5d0 \ud55c\uad6d&middot;\uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \ub9c8\uac10\uacfc \uc720\ub7fd&middot;\ubbf8\uad6d \ud504\ub9ac\uc7a5 \ud750\ub984, \uc624\ub298 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcfc \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub97c \uce74\ub4dc 5\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \uba3c\uc800 \uc815\ub9ac\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc790\uc138\ud55c \ud574\uc124\uc740 \uce74\ub4dc \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wcs-carousel\">\n<div class=\"wcs-track\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/migrated\/6ee63429223950b0.png\" alt=\"\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/migrated\/19f6f52b59a4c088.png\" alt=\"\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/migrated\/d2551d09b5f28aee.png\" alt=\"\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/migrated\/5ea2613f44ad200f.png\" alt=\"\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/migrated\/434f589d44069562.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/div>\n<div class=\"wcs-count\">1 \/ 5<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"wcs-prev\" aria-label=\"\uc774\uc804\">\u2039<\/button><button class=\"wcs-next\" aria-label=\"\ub2e4\uc74c\">\u203a<\/button><\/p>\n<div class=\"wcs-dots\"><span><\/span><span><\/span><span><\/span><span><\/span><span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\uc791\uc131: 2026-06-16 05:35 PDT (\ud55c\uad6d 6\/16 21:35 KST)<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>1. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub9c8\uac10&middot;\uc57c\uac04 \uc815\ub9ac (6\/15 ET \ub9c8\uac10 &rarr; 6\/16 \uc0c8\ubcbd PDT)<\/h2>\n<p><b>[\uc0ac\uc2e4]<\/b> \uc5b4\uc81c(6\/15) \ubbf8\uad6d \ub9c8\uac10 (\ud734\uc804 \ub7a0\ub9ac \uc808\uc815)<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\uc790\uc0b0<\/th>\n<th>\uc885\uac00<\/th>\n<th>\ubcc0\ub3d9<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>S&amp;P 500<\/td>\n<td>7,554.29<\/td>\n<td>+1.65%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \uc885\ud569<\/td>\n<td>&mdash;<\/td>\n<td>+3.07%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\ub2e4\uc6b0<\/td>\n<td>51,671.03<\/td>\n<td>+0.92%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>VIX<\/td>\n<td>16.84<\/td>\n<td>-13.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>WTI \uc720\uac00<\/td>\n<td>$80.23<\/td>\n<td>-5.48%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\uae08<\/td>\n<td>$4,361.10<\/td>\n<td>+2.89%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u7f8e \uad6d\ucc44 10\ub144<\/td>\n<td>4.48%<\/td>\n<td>-0.01%p<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><b>[\uc0ac\uc2e4]<\/b> \ubbf8\uad6d \uc120\ubb3c&middot;\ud504\ub9ac\uc7a5 (6\/16 \uc0c8\ubcbd PDT)<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>S&amp;P500 E-mini \uc120\ubb3c <b>+0.46%<\/b>, \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \uc120\ubb3c \uac15\ubcf4\ud569 &mdash; <i>FOMC \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc228 \uace0\ub974\uae30<\/i><\/li>\n<li>\uac1c\ubcc4 \ud504\ub9ac\uc7a5: SpaceX(SPCX) +8.9%, Robinhood(HOOD) \uc57d\ubcf4\ud569(\ub0b4\ubd80\uc790 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uacf5\uc2dc)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>[\uad00\uce21]<\/b> \uc544\uc2dc\uc544\ub294 \uc5b4\uc81c(6\/15) \ud734\uc804 \ud638\uc7ac\uc5d0 \ud55c \ubc15\uc790 \uba3c\uc800 \uae09\ub4f1(\ud55c\uad6d&middot;\ub2db\ucf00\uc774 +5%\ub300)\ud588\uace0, \uc624\ub298(6\/16 KST) \ub9c8\uac10 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \ucd9c\ucc98\ubcc4 \ud3b8\ucc28\uac00 \ucee4 <i>\uc7ac\ud655\uc778 \ub300\uc0c1<\/i>\uc774\ub2e4. \ud64d\ucf69 \ud56d\uc14d\uc740 24,843\uc120(+0.5% \ubd80\uadfc)\uc73c\ub85c \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ucc28\ubd84\ud55c \ub9c8\uac10\uc774 \uad00\uce21\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud55c\uad6d&middot;\uc77c\ubcf8 \uc885\uac00\ub294 \ub2e8\uc77c \ucd9c\ucc98 \ucd94\uc815\uce58\ub77c \ubcf8 \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc120 *\ubc29\ud5a5\uc131(\ud734\uc804 \ud638\uc7ac \uc120\ubc18\uc601 &rarr; \ucd94\uac00 \ub3d9\ub825 \uc57d\ud654)*\ub9cc \uc9da\ub294\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>2. \uc624\ub298\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec &mdash; \uc6cc\uc2dc \uccab FOMC, &#8220;\ub3d9\uacb0&#8221;\ubcf4\ub2e4 &#8220;\uc2e0\ud638&#8221;\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec<\/h2>\n<p><b>[\uc0ac\uc2e4]<\/b> 6\/16~17 FOMC \uac1c\uc694<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li><b>\uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd \uc6b0\uc138<\/b> &mdash; \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac 3.50~3.75% \uc720\uc9c0. CME FedWatch \uc57d **97.4%**\uac00 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc608\uc0c1. \ub85c\uc774\ud130 \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8 102\uba85 \uc911 72\uba85\uc774 <i>\uc5f0\ub0b4 \ucd94\uac00 \ub3d9\uacb0<\/i> \uc804\ub9dd.<\/li>\n<li><b>\ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uccab \ud68c\uc758<\/b> &mdash; 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 22\uc77c \ucde8\uc784(\uc0c1\uc6d0 54-45 \uc778\uc900). 6\/17 \uc624\ud6c4 <b>\uccab \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac<\/b>\uc5d0\uc11c \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot)&middot;\uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd(SEP)&middot;\uc18c\ud1b5 \uc2a4\ud0c0\uc77c\uc774 \uacf5\uac1c\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li><b>\uc815\ucc45 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4 \ubcc0\ud654 \uad00\uc804<\/b> &mdash; \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 <i>\uc644\ud654(easing) \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\ub9bd(neutral)\uc73c\ub85c<\/i> \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>[\ud574\uc11d] \uc65c &#8220;\ub3d9\uacb0&#8221;\uc778\ub370 \uc911\uc694\ud55c\uac00<\/b>: \uacb0\uacfc(\ub3d9\uacb0)\ub294 \uac70\uc758 \uc815\ud574\uc84c\uc73c\ub2c8, \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uac74 <i>\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uacbd\ub85c<\/i>\ub2e4. \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0\ub97c \ubcf8\ub2e4 &mdash; \u2460 <b>\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c<\/b>\uac00 \uc5f0\ub0b4 \uc778\ud558 \ud69f\uc218\ub97c \uba87 \ud68c\ub85c \uadf8\ub9ac\ub294\uc9c0(0\ud68c\ub85c \uc904\uba74 \ub9e4\ud30c), \u2461 <b>\uc6cc\uc2dc\uc758 \uccab \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac \ud1a4<\/b>(\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uac00 &#8216;\uc778\ud558&#8217;\ub97c \uae30\ub300\ud558\uace0 \uc549\ud78c \uc778\ubb3c\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \ubc18\ub300 \ubc29\ud5a5), \u2462 <b>\uc778\ud50c\ub808&middot;\uace0\uc6a9 \ud3c9\uac00<\/b>(\ubb3c\uac00\ub294 3\ub144 \ucd5c\uace0, 5\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9 +17.2\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ud638\uc870).<\/p>\n<p><b>[\uad00\uce21] \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 vs \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \uae34\uc7a5<\/b>: \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 \ub354 \ube60\ub978 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc6d0\ud574 \uc6cc\uc2dc\ub97c \uc9c0\uba85\ud588\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc <i>\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uac00 3\ub144 \ucd5c\uace0\ub85c \ud280\uace0 \uace0\uc6a9\uc774 \uacac\uc870<\/i>\ud558\uc790, \uace8\ub4dc\ub9cc\uc0ad\uc2a4\ub294 12\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uac70\ub450\uace0 \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 <b>2027\ub144\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\ub918\ub2e4<\/b>. \uc989 &#8220;\uc815\uce58\uc801 \uae30\ub300(\uc778\ud558)&#8221;\uc640 &#8220;\ub370\uc774\ud130 \ud604\uc2e4(\ub3d9\uacb0~\uc9c0\uc5f0)&#8221;\uc774 \ucda9\ub3cc\ud558\ub294 \uccab \ubb34\ub300\uac00 \uc774\ubc88 FOMC\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><b>[\ud574\uc11d] \ud55c\uad6d \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c<\/b>: \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \ub3d9\uacb0&middot;\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc774\uba74 \ud55c\ubbf8 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28&middot;\ud658\uc728 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc838 \ud55c\uc740\uc758 \uc778\ud558 \uc5ec\ub825\ub3c4 \uc81c\uc57d\ub41c\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 <i>\uc758\uc678\ub85c \ube44\ub458\uae30\uc801 \ud1a4<\/i>\uc744 \ub0b4\uba74 \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638\uac00 \ud55c \ubc88 \ub354 \uc0b4\uc544\ub098\uba70 \uc6d0\ud654&middot;\uc218\ucd9c\uc8fc\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801. <i>\ub0b4\uc77c \uc0c8\ubcbd(\ud55c\uad6d 6\/18) \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ubcf4\uace0 \ud55c\uad6d\uc7a5\uc774 \ubc18\uc751<\/i>\ud558\ub294 \uad6c\ub3c4\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>3. \ubbf8\uad6d \ubcc0\uc218 &mdash; \ud734\uc804 \ud638\uc7ac\uc758 \uc794\uc5f4\uacfc FOMC \ub300\uae30 (6\/16 ET \ud504\ub9ac\ubdf0)<\/h2>\n<p><b>[\uad00\uce21]<\/b> \uc5b4\uc81c \ub7a0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc5d4\uc9c4\uc774\uc5c8\ub358 <i>\uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \ub514\uc2a4\uce74\uc6b4\ud2b8 \ud574\uc18c<\/i>\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \ud55c \ucc28\ub840 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub410\ub2e4. \uc624\ub298 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc7a5\uc740 \uc0c8 \ucd09\ub9e4\uac00 \ubd80\uc871\ud55c <i>\uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \ub300\uae30(FOMC \uc804\uc57c)<\/i> \uc131\uaca9\uc774 \uac15\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><b>[\ud574\uc11d] \uc624\ub298 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc7a5 \ub450 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624<\/b>:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li><i>\uad00\ub9dd \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(\uae30\ubcf8)<\/i> &mdash; \uc120\ubb3c \uac15\ubcf4\ud569 \ud750\ub984 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c, \uc881\uc740 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc5d0\uc11c FOMC\ub97c \uae30\ub2e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc800\ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc7a5\uc138.<\/li>\n<li><i>\ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624<\/i> &mdash; \uc5b4\uc81c +3% \uae09\ub4f1\ud55c \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5&middot;\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc5d0\uc11c <i>FOMC \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud68c\ud53c<\/i> \ucc28\uc775\uc2e4\ud604\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba70 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84 \uc77c\ubd80 \ubc18\ub0a9.<\/li>\n<li>\ub458\uc744 \uac00\ub974\ub294 \uac74 <b>\uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac \ubc29\ud5a5<\/b>\uacfc <b>\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4(SOX) \ubaa8\uba58\ud140 \uc9c0\uc18d \uc5ec\ubd80<\/b>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>[\uc0ac\uc2e4&middot;\uad00\uce21] \uc720\uac00&middot;\uc9c0\uc815\ud559<\/b>: WTI 80\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub300 \uc548\uc815. 6\/14 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\ub294 ~$87(-3.4%)\uae4c\uc9c0 \ube60\uc84c\ub2e4. <i>6\/19 \u7f8e-\uc774\ub780 \uc815\uc2dd \uc11c\uba85<\/i>\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \ub18d\ucd95&middot;\uc81c\uc7ac \ud6c4\uc18d \ud611\uc0c1 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778\uc5d0 \ucd9c\ub801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub294 <i>\ubd88\uc644\uc804\ud55c \ud734\uc804<\/i>. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uacf5\uae09 \uce21 \ucd5c\uc545(\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ubd09\uc1c4) \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uc77c\ub2e8 \ud6c4\ud1f4.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>4. \uac70\uc2dc \ubc30\uacbd &mdash; \uc5f0\uc900&middot;\uae08\ub9ac&middot;\uc720\uac00 \uc0bc\uac01 \uad6c\ub3c4<\/h2>\n<p><b>[\uc0ac\uc2e4&middot;\uad00\uce21]<\/b><\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li><b>\uc5f0\uc900<\/b> &mdash; 6\/17 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc720\ub825. \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c&middot;SEP&middot;\uc6cc\uc2dc \uccab \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac. <i>\uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5 &rarr; \uc911\ub9bd \uc804\ud658<\/i> \uc5ec\ubd80\uac00 \ubd84\uae30\uc810.<\/li>\n<li><b>\uae08\ub9ac<\/b> &mdash; \u7f8e 10\ub144 4.48% \ubd80\uadfc \uc548\uc815. \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub20c\ub7ec \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c. \ub2e8 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac \uc7ac\uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc704\ud5d8.<\/li>\n<li><b>\uc720\uac00<\/b> &mdash; WTI 80\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub300. \uc804\uc7c1 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \ub418\uac10\uae40 \uc77c\ub2e8\ub77d. \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d \uc5ec\uc9c0 vs 8\uc6d4 \ud734\uc804 \uc885\ub8cc \ud6c4 \uc7ac\uae34\uc7a5 \uc6b0\ub824 \uacf5\uc874.<\/li>\n<li><b>\uc9c0\uc815\ud559<\/b> &mdash; 6\/19 \uc11c\uba85\uc774 \ub2e4\uc74c \ubd84\uae30\uc810. <i>\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud574\uc18c\uc758 \uc2dc\uc791\uc774\uc9c0 \ub05d\uc774 \uc544\ub2d8<\/i>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>[\ud574\uc11d] \uc9c0\uae08 \uc9da\uc5b4\uc57c \ud560 \ud55c \uac00\uc9c0<\/b>: \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 <i>\uc8fc \ub3d9\ub825\uc774 &#8220;\uc9c0\uc815\ud559&#8221;\uc5d0\uc11c &#8220;\ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45&#8221;\uc73c\ub85c \ub118\uc5b4\uac14\ub2e4<\/i>. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba70\uce60 \uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc720\uac00 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778\ubcf4\ub2e4 <i>\uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 \uadf8\ub9b4 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c<\/i>\uc5d0 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uac00 3\ub144 \ucd5c\uace0\uc778 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 <i>\uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\ub290\ub0d0<\/i>\uac00 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \ucc9c\uc7a5\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>5. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc7a5 \uc2dc (6\/16 ET) \uccb4\ud06c\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8<\/h2>\n<ol style=\"list-style-type: decimal;\">\n<li><b>\uad6d\ucc44 10\ub144 \uae08\ub9ac<\/b> &mdash; 4.48% \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc704\ub85c \ud5a5\ud558\ub294\uc9c0. FOMC\ub97c \uc55e\ub454 \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubca0\ud305 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 1\ucc28 \uc2e0\ud638.<\/li>\n<li><b>\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4(SOX)<\/b> &mdash; \uc5b4\uc81c \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 +3% \uacac\uc778\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec. \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294\uc9c0 vs FOMC \ud68c\ud53c \ucc28\uc775\uc2e4\ud604\uc774 \ub098\uc624\ub294\uc9c0.<\/li>\n<li><b>\ub2ec\ub7ec(DXY)&middot;\uc6d0\ud654<\/b> &mdash; \uc6cc\uc2dc \uae30\ub300(\ub9e4\ud30c\/\ube44\ub458\uae30)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 \uac08\ub9b0\ub2e4. \uc6d0\/\ub2ec\ub7ec 1,500\uc6d0\uc120 \ud750\ub984\uacfc \uc5f0\uacb0.<\/li>\n<li><b>FOMC \uc804 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/b> &mdash; \uc624\ub298\uc740 <i>\uacb0\uacfc \uc804 \uad00\ub9dd<\/i> \uc7a5\uc138\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131. \uc9c4\uc9dc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \ub0b4\uc77c(6\/17) \uc624\ud6c4 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c&middot;\uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac \uc774\ud6c4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\ud83d\udcda \uacf5\ubd80 \ub178\ud2b8 &mdash; &#8220;\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot)&#8221;\uac00 \ubb50\uae38\ub798<\/h2>\n<p><b>\uac1c\ub150<\/b>: \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\ub294 FOMC \uc704\uc6d0 \uac01\uc790\uac00 *&#8221;\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5b4\ub514 \uc788\uc744 \uac83 \uac19\ub2e4&#8221;*\uace0 \ucc0d\ub294 \uc810\ub4e4\uc758 \ubd84\ud3ec\ub3c4\ub2e4. \ubd84\uae30\ub9c8\ub2e4(3&middot;6&middot;9&middot;12\uc6d4) \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd(SEP)\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uacf5\uac1c\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc704\uc6d0 \ud55c \uba85\uc774 \uc810 \ud558\ub098.<\/p>\n<p><b>\ube44\uc720<\/b>: 18\uba85\uc774 \ub2e4\ud2b8\ud310\uc5d0 <i>&#8220;\uc5f0\ub9d0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc5ec\uae30\ucbe4&#8221;<\/i> \ud558\uace0 \ub2e4\ud2b8\ub97c \ub358\uc9c4 \uadf8\ub9bc. \ub2e4\ud2b8\uac00 \uc704\ucabd(\uace0\uae08\ub9ac)\uc5d0 \ubab0\ub9ac\uba74 \ub9e4\ud30c, \uc544\ub798\ucabd(\uc800\uae08\ub9ac)\uc5d0 \ubab0\ub9ac\uba74 \ube44\ub458\uae30. *\uc911\uc559\uac12(median)*\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubcf4\ub294 &#8220;\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uacf5\uc2dd \uc2e0\ud638&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p><b>\uc2e4\uc81c \uc0ac\ub840<\/b>: \uc774\ubc88 6\uc6d4 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\ub0b4 \uc778\ud558 \ud69f\uc218 \uc911\uc559\uac12\uc774 <i>0\ud68c\ub85c \uc904\uba74<\/i> &rarr; &#8220;\uc62c\ud574 \uc778\ud558 \uc5c6\ub2e4&#8221;\ub294 \ub9e4\ud30c \uc2e0\ud638 &rarr; \uae08\ub9ac&uarr;&middot;\uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc&darr; \uac00\ub2a5. \ubc18\ub300\ub85c <i>1~2\ud68c\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0<\/i>\ud558\uba74 &rarr; \uc548\ub3c4 \ub7a0\ub9ac \uac00\ub2a5. \uace8\ub4dc\ub9cc\uc774 \uc778\ud558\ub97c 2027\ub144\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\ub8ec \uc9c0\uae08, <i>\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uac00 \uadf8 \ube44\uad00\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud558\ub290\ub0d0<\/i>\uac00 \ub0b4\uc77c\uc758 \uad00\uc804 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\ud83d\udccc \uc815\uc815 \uc0ac\ud56d<\/h2>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>\uc9c1\uc804 \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8(20260615_PM) \ub300\ube44 \uc815\uc815 \uc0ac\ud56d \uc5c6\uc74c. (\uc5b4\uc81c \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8\uc758 \uae08 +2.89% \ub3d9\ubc18 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \ub2e8\uc77c \ucd9c\ucc98 \uc218\uce58\ub85c \ud45c\uc2dc\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ubcf8 \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc7ac\ud655\uc778 \uc804\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucc38\uace0\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c\ub9cc.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\ud83d\udd0d Sources<\/h2>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/stock-market-today\/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-june-16-2026\">TheStreet &mdash; Stock Market Today June 16 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/analysis\/kevin-warsh-opens-first-fed-meeting-june-16-with-rate-hold-expected-202606151326\">FXStreet &mdash; Warsh opens first Fed meeting June 16, rate hold expected<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chase.com\/personal\/investments\/learning-and-insights\/article\/kevin-warsh-first-federal-reserve-meeting-as-chair-june-2026\">Chase &mdash; What to expect at Warsh&#8217;s first Fed meeting<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.indexbox.io\/blog\/fed-chair-warsh-faces-rate-decision-amid-bond-market-and-trump-pressure\/\">IndexBox &mdash; Warsh&#8217;s first FOMC: rate hold expected<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/news-articles\/markets\/equity\/nasdaq-sp500-futures-breather-ahead-of-first-warsh-led-fed-decision-why-spcx-tsla-rklb-baba-nvo-sti-in-focus\/cZKWkRXR7Ek\">Stocktwits &mdash; Nasdaq, S&amp;P 500 futures catch breath ahead of Warsh-led Fed decision<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/05\/29\/oil-prices-iran-ceasefire-us-trump-strait-hormuz-energy-costs.html\">CNBC &mdash; Oil drops on US-Iran ceasefire talks<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/commodity\/brent-crude-oil\">TradingEconomics &mdash; Brent crude oil<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/hong-kong\/stock-market\">TradingEconomics &mdash; Hong Kong Stock Market (HK50)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p><i>\uc2dc\uc7a5\ubd84\uc11d\uac00 &mdash; \ub9e4\ud06c\ub85c&middot;\ud574\uc11d&middot;\uad50\uc721. \uac1c\ubcc4 \uc885\ubaa9 \ub9e4\uc218\/\ub9e4\ub3c4 \ucd94\ucc9c\uc740 \ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4(\uadf8\uac74 \uccb4\ub9ac\uc758 \uc601\uc5ed). \uc704 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \ubc1c\ud45c&middot;\uad00\uce21 \uc2dc\uc810 \uae30\uc900\uc774\uba70, \uac1c\uc7a5 \ud6c4 \uc2e4\uc81c \ud638\uac00\ub85c \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\uc744 \uad8c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/i><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><b>\ud83d\udccc \uc9c0\ub09c \uc2dc\ud669\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \ubcf4\uae30<\/b><\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/category\/%EB%AF%B8%EA%B5%AD%20%EC%9E%A5%EC%A0%84%20%EC%8B%9C%ED%99%A9\">\ubbf8\uad6d \uc7a5\uc804 \uc2dc\ud669 \ubaa8\uc544\ubcf4\uae30<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/category\/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%20%EC%9E%A5%EC%A0%84%20%EC%8B%9C%ED%99%A9\">\ud55c\uad6d \uc7a5\uc804 \uc2dc\ud669 \ubaa8\uc544\ubcf4\uae30<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u203b \uc774 \uae00\uc740 \ud22c\uc790 \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ub3d5\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uad00\ucc30&middot;\uc815\ub9ac\uc774\uba70, \ud2b9\uc815 \uc885\ubaa9\uc758 \ub9e4\uc218&middot;\ub9e4\ub3c4 \ucd94\ucc9c\uc774 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uc791\uc131 \uc2dc\uc810 \uae30\uc900\uc774\uba70 \ucd9c\ucc98\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub418\uc168\ub2e4\uba74 \uc544\ub798 \uad11\uace0 \ud55c \ubc88 \ub20c\ub7ec\uc8fc\uc2dc\uba74 \ube14\ub85c\uadf8 \uc6b4\uc601\uc5d0 \ud070 \ud798\uc774 \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud83d\ude4f<\/p>\n<p><b>I can survive. We can survive.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>                    <!-- System - START --><\/p>\n<p>        <!-- System - END --><\/p>\n<p><!-- inventory --><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u26a1 TL;DR \ubb34\ub300\uac00 \ubc14\ub010\ub2e4 &mdash; \ud734\uc804\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc73c\ub85c. \uc5b4\uc81c(6\/15)\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b0 \u7f8e-\uc774\ub780 \ud734\uc804&middot;\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \uc7ac\uac1c\ud1b5 \ud638\uc7ac\ub294 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uc18c\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. \uc624\ub298\ubd80\ud130 \uc774\ud2c0\uac04 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub2e8 \ud558\ub098\uc758 \uc9c0\ubc30 \ubcc0\uc218\ub294 \ub0b4\uc77c(6\/17) FOMC &mdash; \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc(Kevin Warsh) \uc2e0\uc784 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uccab \ud68c\uc758\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \ud655\uc815. \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac 3.50~3.75% \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 CME FedWatch \uae30\uc900 97% \uc774\uc0c1. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad00\uc2ec\uc740 &#8220;\ub3d9\uacb0\uc774\ub0d0&#8221;\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c&middot;SEP&middot;\uc6cc\uc2dc\uc758 \uccab \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac \ud1a4\uc5d0 \uc788\ub2e4&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-5"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22\/revisions\/116"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}