{"id":60,"date":"2025-11-20T08:58:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-20T08:58:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/40.233.122.247\/?p=60"},"modified":"2025-11-20T08:58:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T08:58:12","slug":"11%ec%9b%94-%ec%a1%b0%ec%a0%95%ec%9e%a5-%ec%a4%91-%ec%9a%b0%eb%a6%ac%ec%9d%98-%ec%84%a0%ed%83%9d%ec%9d%80-%ed%95%9c%ea%b5%ad-%ec%a6%9d%ec%8b%9c-5000-vs-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%a6%9d%ec%8b%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/?p=60","title":{"rendered":"11\uc6d4 \uc870\uc815\uc7a5 \uc911 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc120\ud0dd\uc740? \ud55c\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc 5000 vs \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc \ubd84\uc0b0 \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5"},"content":{"rendered":"

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<\/span><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

\ucd5c\uadfc \ud55c\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc\uc5d0\uc11c KOSPI 5000 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. KB\uc99d\uad8c\uacfc JP\ubaa8\uac74 \uac19\uc740 \ub300\ud615 \uc99d\uad8c\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc774 2026\ub144 KOSPI 5000\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba70, \uac15\uc138 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 7500\uae4c\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc678\uad6d\uc778 \uc790\uae08\uc740 11\uc6d4 \ud55c \ub2ec\uac04 10\uc870 \uc6d0\uc774 \ube60\uc838\ub098\uac14\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacfc\uc5f0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ud55c\uad6d \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud574\uc57c \ud560\uae4c\uc694, \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc \uc911\uc2ec\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc57c \ud560\uae4c\uc694?<\/p>\n

\uc548\ub155\ud558\uc138\uc694, \uce94\uc11c\ubc29\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc624\ub298\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc 1\uac1c\uc6d4\uac04 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc790\uae08 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uace0, \uc2e4\uc804 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ub9ac\ubc38\ub7f0\uc2f1 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc815\ub9ac\ud574\ubd24\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udf0a \uc790\uae08\uc740 \uc9c0\uae08 \uc5b4\ub514\ub85c \ud750\ub974\uace0 \uc788\ub098<\/h2>\n

\ud55c\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc: \uc678\uad6d\uc778 \uc790\uae08 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc720\ucd9c<\/h3>\n

10\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \uc678\uad6d\uc778\uc774 6\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc21c\ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba70 30.2\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0ac\ub4e4\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 11\uc6d4 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. <\/span>\ud55c \ub2ec\uac04 10\uc870 \uc6d0 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc21c\ub9e4\ub3c4<\/b>\ud558\uba70 \uc5ed\ub300 2\ubc88\uc9f8\ub85c \ud070 \uaddc\ubaa8\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc: \ub4f1\ub77d \ubc18\ubcf5 \uc911<\/h3>\n

S&P 500\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \ud55c \ub2ec\uac04 1.63% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 10\uc6d4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uc5d0\uc11c 11\uc6d4 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. Fear & Greed Index\ub294 12\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc838 “\uadf9\ub3c4\uc758 \uacf5\ud3ec” \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778: 30% \uae09\ub77d<\/h3>\n

10\uc6d4 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c 30% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \ud3c9\uade0 \ub9e4\uc218\uac00\ub97c \ubc11\ub3cc\uc544 \uc62c\ud574 \ub9e4\uc218\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ud3c9\uade0 13% \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc790\uae08\uc740 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c<\/h3>\n

\uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0\uc11c \ube60\uc838\ub098\uc628 \uc790\uae08\uc740 <\/span>\uba38\ub2c8\ub9c8\ucf13\ud380\ub4dc(MMF)\uc640 \ud22c\uc790\ub4f1\uae09 \ud68c\uc0ac\ucc44<\/b>\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 2\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0\ub9cc \uc804 \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c 2,410\uc5b5 \uc720\ub85c\uac00 MMF\ub85c \uc720\uc785\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 “\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uae30\ub2e4\ub9ac\uba70 \ub300\uae30 \uc911”\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcca \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740?<\/h2>\n

\uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\uae08\uc774 \ubab0\ub9b0\ub2e4\ub294 \uac74 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc6b0\ub824 \ub54c\ubb38\uc77c\uae4c\uc694? \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud574\ubd24\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae0d\uc815\uc801 \uc2e0\ud638\ub4e4<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • Sahm Rule<\/b>: 0.092\ub85c \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uae30\uc900\uc120 0.2\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \ubc11\ub3cc\uc74c<\/li>\n
  • \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uace1\uc120<\/b>: 2022-2024\ub144 \uc5ed\uc804\uc5d0\uc11c 2025\ub144 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654 (+53bp)<\/li>\n
  • GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960<\/b>: 2\ubd84\uae30 +3.8%, 3\ubd84\uae30 +4.2% \uc608\uc0c1<\/li>\n
  • \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \ud655\ub960<\/b>: 8\uc6d4 61.79% → 11\uc6d4 33.56%\ub85c \uae09\ub77d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \uc8fc\uc758\ud560 \uc810<\/h3>\n

    \uc120\ud589\uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\uc218(LEI)\uac00 7\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \ud558\ub77d \uc911\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. “\uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4\ub294 \uc544\ub2c8\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \ub454\ud654”\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 2026\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 1.9%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud558\uba70 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \ub454\ud654\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

    **\uacb0\ub860: \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 “\uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \ub454\ud654 \uad6d\uba74”**\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

    \ud83d\ude80 KOSPI 5000, \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c\uac00?<\/h2>\n

    \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ud638\uc7ac\ub4e4<\/h3>\n

    MSCI \uc120\uc9c4\uad6d \ud3b8\uc785<\/b>: 2026\ub144 6\uc6d4 \ud655\uc815 \uc2dc 40-80\uc870 \uc6d0 \uc790\uae08 \uc720\uc785 \uc608\uc0c1. KB\uc99d\uad8c\uacfc JP\ubaa8\uac74 \ubaa8\ub450 KOSPI 5000\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

    WGBI \ucc44\uad8c \ud3b8\uc785 \ud655\uc815<\/b>: 2026\ub144 4\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 11\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 73\uc870 \uc6d0 \ud328\uc2dc\ube0c \uc790\uae08\uc774 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc785\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6d4\ud3c9\uade0 9\uc870 \uc6d0\uc529 8\uac1c\uc6d4\uac04 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc635\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

    \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ube45 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074<\/b>: AI \uc218\uc694\ub85c \uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uac00 2026\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ud638\ud669\uc744 \ub9de\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790\uc640 SK\ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4\uc758 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc7ac\uace0\ub294 2\ub144 \uc804 \ub300\ube44 \uc808\ubc18 \uc218\uc900\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

    3\uc800 \ud638\ud669<\/b>: \uc800\ub2ec\ub7ec, \uc800\uc720\uac00, \uc800\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uacb9\uce58\ub294 \uac83\uc740 1985\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 40\ub144 \ub9cc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

    \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub3c4 \uba85\ud655<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • 11\uc6d4 \ud55c \ub2ec\uac04 \uc678\uad6d\uc778 10\uc870 \uc6d0 \uc21c\ub9e4\ub3c4 (\uc5ed\ub300 2\uc704)<\/li>\n
    • MSCI \ud3b8\uc785\uc740 \ube68\ub77c\ub3c4 2027\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc801\uc6a9<\/li>\n
    • 2026\ub144\uc740 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ub192\uc740 “\uc9dd\uc218\ub144”<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      \ud83d\udca1 \uc2e4\uc804 \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h2>\n

      \uae30\ubcf8 \uc6d0\uce59: \ubd84\uc0b0\uacfc \ubd84\ud560 \ub9e4\uc218<\/h3>\n

      \uadf9\ub3c4\uc758 \uacf5\ud3ec \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. <\/span>6\uac1c\uc6d4 DCA(Dollar Cost Averaging) \uc804\ub7b5<\/b>\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

      \uc790\uc0b0 \ubc30\ubd84 \uc870\uc815<\/h3>\n

      \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc2ec, \ud55c\uad6d \ud3ec\ud568<\/b>\uc774 \ud604\uc2e4\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n

        \n
      • \ubbf8\uad6d \uc8fc\uc2dd\/ETF: 32-35%<\/li>\n
      • \ud55c\uad6d \uc8fc\uc2dd\/ETF: 20-25%<\/li>\n
      • \uae08: 9%<\/li>\n
      • \ucc44\uad8c\/\ud604\uae08: 34-36%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        \uad6c\uccb4\uc801 \uc561\uc158<\/h3>\n
          \n
        1. \ube45\ud14c\ud06c \uc77c\ubd80 \uc775\uc808<\/b>: \uc560\ud50c, \uc5d4\ube44\ub514\uc544 \ub4f1 \uace0\uc218\uc775 \uc885\ubaa9 30% \uc815\ub3c4 \ucc28\uc775 \uc2e4\ud604<\/li>\n
        2. \ud604\uae08 \ud655\ubcf4<\/b>: 18-20% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ubcf4<\/li>\n
        3. \ubd84\ud560 \ub9e4\uc218<\/b>: 2025\ub144 12\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 2026\ub144 6\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 6\uac1c\uc6d4\uac04 \uc6d4\ubcc4 \ub9e4\uc218<\/li>\n
        4. \ud55c\uad6d \ube44\uc911 \uc870\uc815<\/b>: \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ube60\uc9c0\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uace0 20-25% \uc720\uc9c0<\/li>\n
        5. \uae08\uc735\uc8fc \ucd94\uac00 \uace0\ub824<\/b>: \ubc38\ub958\uc5c5 \uc815\ucc45 \uc218\ud61c\uc8fc\ub85c \uc6d4 \uc18c\uc561 \ub9e4\uc218<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1 \uc77c\uc815<\/h3>\n
            \n
          • 12\uc6d4 9-10\uc77c: FOMC \ud68c\uc758 \uacb0\uacfc<\/li>\n
          • 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4: \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc608\uc0c1 \uc2dc\uc810<\/li>\n
          • 2026\ub144 6\uc6d4: MSCI \ud3b8\uc785 \ud655\uc815 \uc5ec\ubd80<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            \u2705 \ud575\uc2ec \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8<\/h2>\n

            KOSPI 5000\uc740 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc <\/span>2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uc774\ud6c4<\/b>\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc2e4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 4000-5000 \uc0ac\uc774\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud0c0\ub2f9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

            \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud55c\uad6d\uc5d0 \uc62c\uc778\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 <\/span>\ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc2ec \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub418, \ud55c\uad6d\uc744 25% \uc815\ub3c4 \ud3ec\ud568<\/b>\ud558\ub294 \uade0\ud615 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ucd5c\uc120\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

            \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ub0ae\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uadf9\ub3c4\uc758 \uacf5\ud3ec \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub294 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac10\uc815\uc5d0 \ud718\ub458\ub9ac\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uace0, \uacc4\ud68d\ub300\ub85c \uae30\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\ud560 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\ub9ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

            \n

            \uc5ec\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae00\uc744 \uc798 \uc77d\uc5b4\uc8fc\uc168\ub2e4\uba74, \uc544\ub798 \ub098\uc624\ub294 \uad11\uace0\ub97c \uc0b4\uc9dd \ub20c\ub7ec\uc8fc\uc2dc\uba74 \uc800\ub3c4 \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uc0b4\uc544\ub0a8\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac \ud568\uaed8 \uc0b4\uc544\ub0a8\uc544\uc694! \ud83e\ude75<\/b><\/p>\n

            I can survive. We can survive.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

            <\/p>\n

            <\/p>\n

            <\/p>\n

            <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            \ucd5c\uadfc \ud55c\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc\uc5d0\uc11c KOSPI 5000 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. KB\uc99d\uad8c\uacfc JP\ubaa8\uac74 \uac19\uc740 \ub300\ud615 \uc99d\uad8c\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc774 2026\ub144 KOSPI 5000\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba70, \uac15\uc138 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 7500\uae4c\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc678\uad6d\uc778 \uc790\uae08\uc740 11\uc6d4 \ud55c \ub2ec\uac04 10\uc870 \uc6d0\uc774 \ube60\uc838\ub098\uac14\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacfc\uc5f0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ud55c\uad6d \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud574\uc57c \ud560\uae4c\uc694, \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc \uc911\uc2ec\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc57c \ud560\uae4c\uc694? \uc548\ub155\ud558\uc138\uc694, \uce94\uc11c\ubc29\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc624\ub298\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc 1\uac1c\uc6d4\uac04 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc790\uae08 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uace0, \uc2e4\uc804 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/61"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wecansurvive.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}