The Fed hiked and promised more. A unanimous 12–0 vote took the funds rate to 3.75–4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. Median dot for end-2026: 4.1%; for end-2027: also 4.1%. By the test we set on 9/16, that means one more hike. Stocks reversed within a day. After the Dow fell 1.2% on Fed…
The KOSPI rebounded after four straight down days, closing at 6,717.97 (+90.71, +1.37%). Domestic institutions bought 1.21 trillion won, concentrated in chips. Samsung Electronics closed at 253,500 won (+2.01%) and SK Hynix at 1,759,000 won (+4.08%). 🔴 Foreign investors sold for a sixth straight session, 1.68 trillion won. The won fell another 9.2 to 1,368.6/USD….
The US 10-year hit 5.04%, the highest since July 2007 [observed], clearing the October 2023 peak of roughly 5.02%. The 30-year is at 5.40% and the 2-year at 4.686%. The whole curve is shifting up more or less in parallel. Oil is doing the pushing. Brent $107.05 (+1.6%), WTI $102.9 (+1.5%). Per BMO Capital Markets,…
A call to slow AI development hit semiconductors. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a roughly 3,800-word essay on Saturday 9/12 arguing that safety and oversight need time to catch up with capability gains. Sam Altman agreed that labs need to "pace the frontier"; Elon Musk agreed as well. In the same stretch, OpenAI pushed its…
US August CPI: headline +0.4% (in line), core +0.3% (above the +0.2% forecast). Year-on-year, headline 3.4% and core 2.4% both matched expectations. Gasoline jumped 3.9% in a month, accounting for more than a third of the headline increase. Yesterday's PPI showed cool core inflation; today's CPI showed hot core inflation. The two gauges split, which…
US August PPI — headline +0.4% (in line), core +0.2% (below the +0.3% forecast). Year-on-year: headline 5.4%, core 4.6–4.7%. More than three-quarters of the rise came from energy (+4.2%), and diesel jumped 24.1% in a single month. The source of the inflation is confirmed in the data: it is oil. Yet the 10-year yield pushed…
KOSPI 7,051.64 (+1.40%, +97.12 pts) — back above 7,000 for the first time in 33 sessions. Intraday high 7,112.48; the KOSDAQ small-cap index rose 2.28% to 830.37. Three prior failures (Aug 14, Aug 18, Sep 8) gave way on the fourth try. All four checkpoints this brief set yesterday resolved the same way. Korea followed…
KOSPI closed 6,954.52, down 0.58% (−40.87 points). It opened at 7,045.79, reclaimed 7,000 for the first time in 15 sessions, ran to 7,171.52, and surrendered the entire move. Decliners outnumbered advancers 2.6 to 1. KOSDAQ 811.88 (−1.25%). The three-stage test this briefing set yesterday has its answer. ① intraday break of 7,000 — passed. ②…
KOSPI 6,995.39 (+4.61%, +308.18 points). KOSDAQ 822.19 (+1.07%). Samsung Electronics 270,000 won (+5.68%), SK Hynix 1,783,000 won (+8.26%). The won strengthened to 1,340.5 per dollar (−9.9). The fuel came from Friday's US session — but only part of it. On Sept 4: S&P 500 −0.38% (7,718.60), Nasdaq −0.29% (26,506.99), Dow −0.51% (53,414.25), while the SOX…
August payrolls came in at roughly three times the consensus. Nonfarm payrolls +162,000 (consensus +53,000 to +56,000), unemployment steady at 4.1%, average hourly earnings +0.3%. The assumption that the labor market is cooling took a direct hit. The revisions matter more than the headline. July flipped from −23,000 to +21,000, and June was revised up…