★ Stocks at a record, long yields at a record too. Nasdaq 27,477.31 (+1.05%, all-time high) · S&P 500 7,773.95 (+0.66%) · Dow 51,267.90 (+0.18%). Yet the 10-year closed near 5.31% (+3bp) after hitting 5.349%, the highest since April 2002. The 30-year: 5.66–5.70%. ★ Bonds were listening to the ISM prices index. The September ISM…
★ Tokyo bought on Seoul's behalf. Nikkei 69,946.86 (+2.40%), briefly above 70,000. TOPIX +1.33%. The driver: October Fed hike odds below 20% (CME, versus 64% a week earlier) plus AI and semiconductor megacaps. ★ Europe has a new problem. EUR/USD 1.1161 (17-month low), French 10-year 4.92%, spread over Germany about 146 bp. Spain calls a…
★ The jobs miss killed the October hike. Payrolls +29k (vs. +84k), unemployment 4.2% (vs. 4.1%), hourly wages +0.1%. CME odds of an October hike: 17–22% (82.8% hold). December hike odds stayed above 75% (CME, one report). ★ The 10-year still closed higher at 5.28%. Down about 13bp right after the data, then a full…
★ Seoul and Tokyo bought Micron. KOSPI 6,971.35 (+1.95%), reversing from an intraday low of 6,765.06. Samsung Electronics ₩276,000 (+2.79%) · SK hynix ₩1,833,000 (+3.21%) · KOSDAQ 894.29 (+4.48%). Nikkei 68,957 (+2,203 pts). ★ New York hasn't bought it yet. Micron is flat to −1% pre-market. Nasdaq-100 futures +0.6% reflect AI megacaps; Dow futures about…
★ Short rates believed the PCE report; long rates did not. CME odds of an October hike: 35–37% (about 51% on Sept 29, 70%+ a week earlier). Yet the 10-year rose to 5.29–5.30% (+4bp) and the 30-year to 5.63% (+6bp), while the 2-year sat near 4.90%. December hike odds actually rose to 59.4% (one tally)….
★ August PCE cooled sharply. Headline +0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m, 3.0% y/y. Forecasts were +0.4%/3.7% and +0.3%/3.3%. All four came in below expectations. ★ The Fed had already eased its tone. Williams (9/29): "With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency." One more hike…
★ Chips came back first. SOX +1.32% vs Nasdaq −0.09%, a 1.41-point gap. Micron +1.64%, ASML +3.56%, Lam Research +2.99%, SK hynix's US-listed ADR +2.62%. Nvidia slipped slightly. ★ Weak data, higher long yields. Consumer confidence 81.9 (consensus ~89, lowest since 2014), expectations index 63.6; JOLTS openings 7.079M (consensus ~7.22M, five-month low). Yet the 10-year…
★ Monday was not a chip-only selloff. SOX −1.61% vs Nasdaq −0.92%: a 0.69-point gap, short of our 1-point threshold. Instead, the 10-year closed at 5.24% (5.27% intraday, highest since 2007) and weighed on the whole market. ★ AI has entered the rates story. In a Sept. 28 speech, Governor Cook said the AI buildout…
★ Seoul took the first hit. KOSPI 6,889.74 (−191.18 pts, −2.70%). Foreigners −₩3.23tn, institutions −₩1.02tn, retail +₩2.61tn. Samsung Electronics ₩270,000 (−5.43%), SK Hynix ₩1,768,000 (−5.05%). USD/KRW 1,365.1 (+7.6). The small-cap KOSDAQ actually rose, 846.58 (+0.25%). ★ The new ingredient is "AI slowing down." OpenAI halted training, evaluation and tool-enabled runs of its most capable models…
★ Over four days, stocks abroad were flat while yields rose ~18bp. S&P 500 from 9/22 to 9/25: about −0.3%; SOX about −0.2% (12,689.82 → 12,668.93). Over the same span, the US 10-year went from about 4.99% to 5.17%, the 2-year sits at 4.81%, the 30-year at 5.49%. Most of the new information Seoul prices…