Oct 27, 2026 KOSPI Market Brief — What to Watch Before the Korean Open

1. ★ AI doubts got an answer in numbers. According to the S-1, Anthropic's first-half revenue was about $16.3B (versus $4.6B for all of 2025), with roughly $113B in cash and equivalents. Reports say it is targeting a valuation of up to $2T and a raise of about $100B, which would be the largest US IPO ever.
2. ★ Wall Street answered through chips. S&P 500 7,676.77 (+0.70%), Nasdaq 26,169.38 (+0.83%), Dow 52,361.58 (+0.28%). SOX +2.82%, SK hynix ADR +4.09%.
3. ★ Seoul fell yesterday and bounced today. Oct 26 KOSPI 5,469.47 (−1.46%), foreign net selling ₩695.5B (about ₩753B including the Nextrade alternative exchange). Oct 27 open 5,658.65 (+3.46%), KOSDAQ 743.09 (+2.18%).
4. Korea Q3 GDP +1.0% q/q. Driven by equipment investment (+4.1%) and exports (+2.3%), while private consumption fell 0.2%. Chips are pulling the economy; households are not keeping up.
5. Two hurdles remain. Brent at $115.81 (−0.8%) is still high and the US 10-year sits near 4.99%. Next: SK hynix earnings (Oct 28) and the Fed decision (early Oct 29 KST), where Chair Warsh may deliver a "hawkish hold."

This is Mr. Can. Here is the Oct 27, 2026 brief ahead of the Korean market open.

Written: Oct 27, 2026 09:50 KST (Vancouver Oct 26, 17:50 PDT) · Work began 09:33 KST (17:33 PDT)
Basis: US close on Mon Oct 26 + Seoul close on Oct 26 + Seoul open on Oct 27 (09:00) + Korea Q3 GDP advance estimate (Oct 27, 08:00)

🔴 Late edition. This run started 1 hour 33 minutes after its 16:00 PDT (08:00 KST) slot, so it goes out after the Korean open. The opening print and the GDP release are included.
🔴 Missed edition: Oct 26 pre-US-open brief. No file was produced; cause unknown. The Seoul checkpoints set in the Oct 25 brief are scored here instead.
🟡 Korean 10-year bond yields, the US 2-year yield and KOSPI 200 night futures were not available.
ℹ️ Disclosure. This brief is written by an AI model (Claude) made by Anthropic. Today's main story is Anthropic's IPO filing, so this brief reports figures and coverage only and offers no view on the company.

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SEO Intro

Seoul took another hit on Monday. The KOSPI fell 1.46% to 5,469.47, its lowest close since April, as foreign investors sold roughly ₩700 billion (about $530 million) of Korean shares. The tech-heavy KOSDAQ dropped 3.26% to 727.21. Overnight, New York went the other way. After AI company Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 registration with the SEC, the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) jumped 2.82%, and SK hynix's US-listed shares gained 4.09%.

Seoul answered right away this morning. The KOSPI opened 3.46% higher at 5,658.65, and Korea's third-quarter GDP, released at the same time, came in at +1.0% quarter on quarter, far above the Bank of Korea's August forecast of 0.3%.

The question for Seoul today: the market's doubts about AI just got their first answer in hard numbers. Will foreign investors trust that answer ahead of SK hynix earnings tomorrow and the Fed decision the day after?

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1. Checkpoint scorecard

The four set in the Oct 25 brief (Seoul close, Oct 26)

The framing was: with the Middle East risk pushed past the US election, does Seoul turn its attention to earnings and the Fed? The first option meant "building a floor"; the second meant "foreign investors keep trimming chips before earnings." The Oct 26 pre-US-open edition was missed, so the scoring happens here.

★ [Interpretation] Seoul chose to lighten up before earnings, and the reversal came overnight

Three of four landed on the "trim chips before earnings" side. Domestic institutions bought about ₩611B, but that couldn't offset foreign selling and program selling (about −₩525.6B). The Seoul Shinmun noted the KOSPI has fallen 21.6% over the past month, more than other major markets.

Checkpoint 3 is worth a second look. Foreigners sold ₩700B of stock, yet the won actually strengthened (1,323.1). That suggests the sale proceeds were not immediately converted into dollars and taken out of the country. It fits the reading we've held since Oct 20: investors are trimming the chip exposure inside Korea rather than leaving Korea.

And once again, a third variable arrived from outside the framing. The open slot was "US-Iran mediation headlines"; what actually moved the market was Anthropic's IPO filing.

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2. The big story: AI doubts got their first answer in numbers

[Fact] US close, Monday Oct 26

[Fact] Figures from Anthropic's S-1 (as reported)

[Fact] Also on Monday: Meta announced plans to raise up to $95B (starting with $35B in stock), and its shares fell about 1.9%. Tesla rose about 5–6%. The Brazil ETF (EWZ) fell about 20% after President Lula's re-election.

★ [Interpretation] Why this catalyst is different

1. For six weeks, chips have been weighed down by one question: does AI actually make money? OpenAI pausing its top model in September, trimmed OpenAI revenue expectations in October, Meta's negative free cash flow, CoreWeave's debt: all versions of the same doubt. The S-1 is the first answer in the form of an audited regulatory filing. Half-year revenue at roughly 3.5 times last year's full-year total is what the market reacted to.
2. The same filing also says AI is expensive. Infrastructure spending in six months exceeded all of last year, and on the same day Meta said it would raise $95B. Monday, the market heard "revenue." Next week, it may hear "cost."
3. That tension works in chipmakers' favor. Whether AI companies turn a profit or not, right now the money flows into chips and data centers. That's why the SOX (+2.82%) rose more than three times as much as the Nasdaq (+0.83%).
4. A $100B IPO also soaks up money. A deal that size could lead institutions to sell other AI stocks to make room as the listing approaches (see the study note in section 7). No listing date has been confirmed.

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3. The Korea variable: a GDP surprise, but foreign flows are still a question mark

[Fact] Seoul close, Monday Oct 26

[Fact] Tuesday morning, Oct 27

[Fact] Korea Q3 GDP, advance estimate (Bank of Korea, Oct 27 08:00)

[Fact] Real gross domestic income rose 18.8% year on year, the largest gain since Q4 1977, thanks to improved terms of trade (Etoday).

★ [Interpretation] Three signals overlap in Seoul today

1. A +3.46% open is mostly "buying back what was sold yesterday." Yesterday −1.46%, today's open +3.46%: on paper, more than a full recovery. But we can't yet see whether yesterday's sellers (foreign investors) are buying again. Opening prices follow pre-market trading and US chips; what holds a gain through the day is actual flows.
2. GDP shows a chip-driven economy in numbers. Chip equipment investment and exports carried growth while consumers pulled back. Good news for the economy overall, but also a reminder of how much Korea's market leans on two chip stocks. Services grew only 0.2%.
3. Tomorrow's SK hynix results decide whether today's bounce holds. Consensus operating profit is about ₩77 trillion (as of our last brief). Today's rally raised expectations for both the number and the outlook.

[Observation] Many Korean market commentators share a long-standing view: chips will drive Korean stocks higher over the medium term. Today's GDP and Anthropic's numbers lend that view some support. But the view also didn't change while the KOSPI fell 21.6% in a month. Whether it is right will be tested not by a one-day bounce but by when foreign selling stops.

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4. Macro backdrop: oil eased a little; watch for a "hawkish hold"

[Fact]

[Fact] Geopolitics and policy

• Iran: Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey agreed in Tehran to continue security talks with Iranian leaders (IRIB, via Rigzone). Iran's president said Tehran is ready to back "any understanding" that leads to regional unity. Reports of drone interceptions over Riyadh and Houthi-Saudi clashes continued.
• Fed: The FOMC meets Oct 27–28, with the decision on the afternoon of Wed Oct 28 ET = 03:00 KST Thu Oct 29. A hold is widely expected; one analyst quoted by Yahoo Finance put the odds of a hike at this meeting at about 10%. Some expect Chair Kevin Warsh to deliver a "hawkish hold": no hike now, but the door left open to one later.

★ [Interpretation] Oil eased because talks started, not because the conflict ended

Brent slipped to around $115 but remains near a six-month high. As noted last time, renewed strikes have reportedly been pencilled in for after the Nov 3 US midterms, and the Tehran talks may or may not erase that date. A 10-year yield parked just under 5% says the bond market hasn't let go of inflation worries. Anthropic may have lifted stocks, but a hawkish press conference could trim those gains.

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5. Korea today (Tue Oct 27): checkpoints

[Observation] Remaining schedule (KST)

✅ Four checkpoints (by today's Korean close)

The framing: do foreign investors believe Anthropic's "answer in numbers" and come back, or does the bounce end as a domestic-only rebound? The third-variable slot is left for US yields ahead of the Fed (does the 10-year break above 5%?).

1. Foreigners turn net buyers / sell more than ₩300B. (Most important.) Yesterday: −₩695.5B.
2. KOSPI closes above 5,600 / below 5,520. How much of the 5,658.65 open holds. 5,520 is about +0.9% from yesterday's close.
3. KOSDAQ above 745 / below 730. Opened at 743.09. Does the rally spread beyond the chip giants?
4. USD/KRW below 1,315 / above 1,330. Yesterday: 1,323.1.

[Interpretation] If 1 and 2 land on the first option, it's the day Seoul shifted its weight from "AI doubts" to "AI numbers," and tomorrow's SK hynix results become a confirmation step. If 1 lands on the second option but 2 on the first, the bounce is being carried by domestic buyers and has more room to wobble ahead of earnings and the Fed.

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6. Corrections and open items

Corrections

• None.

Source discrepancies (figure used in this brief)

🔲 Not confirmed

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7. Study note: IPOs soak up money (the supply effect)

Concept

Stock prices are set by the balance between money that wants to buy and shares available to sell. When a very large company lists, a big block of new shares hits the market at once. To buy them, institutions either spend cash or sell similar stocks they already own to make room. This is often called the supply overhang of an IPO.

Analogy

Picture a huge new restaurant opening in your neighborhood. People are pleased: "dining out here must be doing well" (that's why chips rose today). But diners only have so much to spend, so in opening week a few nearby restaurants actually get quieter.

Today's example

Anthropic's S-1 was read as a sign that AI makes money, which lifted chip stocks. But if the raise really is about $100B, funds may trim other large AI and tech holdings to free up cash as the listing nears. On the same day, Meta announced a $95B fundraising plan. The good news and the supply burden come inside the same event.

Why it matters

Today's bounce is the "signal" effect. As the listing date approaches, the "supply" effect may come to the front. That makes the confirmation of Anthropic's listing date the next calendar event to watch.

One-line takeaway

A giant IPO moves markets first as a signal, and later as a supply of shares.

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8. Event calendar (KST)

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Sources

• Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq gain as Anthropic IPO buzz reignites AI trade | Yahoo Finance
• Stock Market Today (Oct. 26, 2026) | TheStreet
• Stocks close higher as excitement over Anthropic IPO filing propels tech sector | CNBC
• Oil Dips from 6 Month High as Officials Meet in Tehran | Rigzone (Bloomberg)
• Oil Prices Fall 2% on Iran Talks | Grafa
• Anthropic IPO lifts US stocks; Samsung, SK hynix up 2–3% pre-market | Newdaily (Korean)
• KOSPI falls 1.46% to 5,469 on ₩695.5B foreign selling | Seoul Shinmun (Korean)
• KOSPI opens 3.46% higher at 5,658.65 | Seoul Economic TV (Korean)
• Q3 GDP surprises at 1.0%; private consumption slips | Etoday (Korean)
• Q3 real GDP +1.0% on chip strength | Money Today (Korean)

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Market Analyst · This brief does not recommend buying or selling any individual stock. It provides macro context and interpretation.

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※ This post is market observation and organization intended to support your own judgment. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are as of the time of writing and may differ between sources.

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